U.S Economic Prediction: Why we are in for some hard times

Here is a link from the British Broadcasting Co
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6979577.stm

In that story they talk about a steep and impending U.S. economic downturn caused mainly due to the downturn in the subprime lending markets.

As we have seen for a few weeks now, the subprime lending market has really tanked and it has had a negative effect on the global economy.

The story from the BBC is pretty good but I have a small problem with just one thing... the story quotes people who claim that the economy will take a rather large hit but that it won't go into recession because the US consumer is "resiliant" and that houshold spending has remained strong.

-now, maybe the British or their story's sources havn't payed too much attention to the way in which Americans live. We claim the highest level of personal debt in the world. All of our poor and middle class are virtually drowning in debt and interest payments. We have elderly people who are in such financial straights that they die of heat stroke rather than turn on the A.C.

My point is, that although consumer spending has yet to slow down, it is only a matter of time before the defaulted housing industry drive people into bankruptcy.
-Please keep in mind that the subprime mess will stretch far into our economy, and into many sectors as we have already started to see. This is an entire industry on the brink which employs millions of people. Realetors, constructions workers, bankers, Home Depots, carpeting stores, furniture stores, paint supply, landscaping, etc, all will suffer a great deal from this debacle.

It might not be easy to imagine how the consumers will react to a mortage crisis but the fiscal conservative in me says that they will be anything but "resiliant".

p.s. - it's too f-ing hot in L.A.